The 2016 referendum on the UK leaving the EU has shed light on the realities of contemporary social issues. Many people are questioning the true nature of their vote, as plenty of Leave voters, those left-behind, who felt unjustly represented by politicians and were craving to take back control, made their choice as a protest to the government. Numerous factors such as globalisation and austerity, have made Brexit worthy of the name of ‘ruptural conjuncture’ (MacLeod and Jones, 2018). It is an interesting question how Britain, or specifically the constituency of Leeds Central, would vote if given another opportunity to decide on their country remaining or leaving the EU with or without a deal. Since leaving the European Union without a deal has met such substantial criticism, the question of whether Britain would vote for Brexit again is most curious. In order to speculate on a possible answer, a few things need to be done. Firstly, it is crucial to analyse the outcome and features of the previous referendum. Secondarily, to determine what would happen in case of another referendum, we need to look at the different demographic features that are indicative of the way areas voted, as well as examine what has changed since the original referendum in 2016.
Despite being located in the fourth most pro-Leave region in the UK, the constituency of Leeds Central supported remaining in the EU, with only 46% of those who voted opting to leave. That difference in votes is not, however, very large, indicating that opinion in this area is divided and may change sufficiently to reverse the Remain majority in 2016. Secondly, the turnout across Leeds as a whole was 71.3%, which is slightly below the national average – 72.2% – and slightly above the regional average – 70,7% (Electoral Commission, 2019). To make this analysis more plausible, it is worth noting, that the petition to ‘Revoke Article 50 and Remain in the EU’ signed by over 6 million people in the UK, was given over 10 000 signatures from the constituency Leeds Central, a total slightly smaller than other cities in the UK (Crown copyright and database right [2017], 2019). It is also worth examining an opinion poll by Best for Britain (2016) which investigated people’s support for Remain in 2016, August 2018 and November 2019. The results for Leeds Central were 52.6%, 58.3%, 62.9% respectively. These figures suggest that support for Remain has been gradually increasing, as people were more and more jaded with Brexit and all the uncertainty around it. Another poll on people’s preference to remain in the EU or leave without a deal, showed more support to stay in the EU than the latter. (Survation, 2019)
The demographic features that also need to be taken into account include: age, level of education, number of migrants in the area and percentage of the non-white population. Goodwin and Heath (2016) found that areas with an educated population tend to be more pro-Remain, as was also true of areas with a substantial youth population. By contrast, when the number of migrants in a certain area is small, the population tends to vote for Leave. Leeds Central extends over five wards, the city centre and suburbs, which have a non-white population of over 25% (House of Commons Library, 2018). The area comprises many academic institutions, housing plenty of educated, young people. Therefore it would appear to be more a “pro-remain” constituency, which was confirmed by results in 2016. However, in the three years since the last referendum, a lot has changed, which had an influence on how the population would now vote. Age is a very important factor in the preferences. More than 20,000 people have reached the voting age since 2016 in all of Leeds and as the majority of young people tend to favour remain, the probable effect will be to increase support for Remain (Office of National Statistics, 2019). Similarly, the number of elderly (often more pro-leave) people passing away, would also influence the results. Overall, the trend would be more pro-Remain.
As we can see, support for Brexit in the past three years has steadily declined in Leeds Central. This has to do with changes in demographics and people’s attitudes toward Brexit, having seen the lack of agreement between politicians and how much uncertainty it entails.
‘Contemporary politics is no longer just about right and left.’
Alexander Betts, 2016
It is to a large extent about globalisation and people’s ability to cope with the idea of living in an interconnected and multicultural society. People in Leeds Central appear to be coping with this idea rather well. Therefore, if another referendum were to happen, the conclusion would be that the result in Leeds Central would be to Remain in the EU.
References
Betts, A. (2016) Why Brexit happened — and what to do next. [Online] [Accessed on 11October 2019] Available from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcwuBo4PvE0
Best for Britain (2018). Two thirds of constituencies in Great Britain now support Remain
Lyons Lowe, D. (2019). Survation.
MacLeod, G. and Jones, M (2018) Explaining ‘Brexit capital’: uneven development and the austerity state, Space and Polity, 22:2, 111-136
Hanretty, C. (2017). Areal interpolation and the UK’s referendum on EU membership. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 27(4), 466-483.
House of Commons Library, (2018). Constituency data: ethnicity
Goodwin, M. J. and Heath, O. (2016). The 2016 Referendum, Brexit and the Left Behind: An Aggregate-level Analysis of the Result. Political Quarterly, Vol. 87, No. 3.
The Electoral Commission, (2019) Results and turnout at the EU referendum
The Office of National Statistics (ONS), (2019). National population projections